Let's talk iPhones. Everyone else is this week.
There was a lot of buzz about the projection that Apple may sell 10 million iPhones this year, based on an interesting crowdsourced data-collection effort (spreadsheet) run by MacObserver. The methodology is fascinating -- and historically vindicated -- although the accuracy of its conclusion is impossible to gauge until Apple trumpets the final sales tally in a press release.
But, lending it credence are factoids like NPD Group's report that 30 percent of iPhone 3G buyers bailed on existing phone contracts in order to get one of the new handsets.
In a related meme, the future of the iPhone was dragged into the spotlight by none other than Steve Wozniak, that glorious icon of Apple's antique past. In a widely cited interview with The Guardian, Woz predicted that the iPod is doomed.
Specifically, he said: "The iPod has sort of lived a long life at number one. Things like, that if you look back to transistor radios and Walkmans, they kind of die out after a while."
A shocking pronouncement on its face, yet a completely reasonable forecast if you think about it for a moment. How many "it" gadgets remain must-haves forever? None. Think about the Palm PDA or the pager. They seized the popular imagination, skyrocketed up the sales charts, became ubiquitous ... and slowly faded into irrelevance and/or obsolescence after most people had stopped paying attention and moved onto the next shiny new toy.
Of course, that could take quite a few years. Even then, if the demand for standalone iPods ebbs, it's likely that the iPod's functionality will survive embedded in the iPhone and its descendants. CNet's Matt Rosoff makes a similar argument in the provocatively titled iPod dying? It's already dead -- that future innovation at Apple will be built around "multifunction devices with interesting new interfaces (touch is just the beginning) that act more like tiny computers than single-purpose devices."
And even phone-free iPods are likely to be around for a while. According to Piper Jaffray's latest Teen Survey, 79 percent of teens planning to buy a new MP3 player in the next 12 months -- and only 34 percent of respondents did -- would pick an iPod. As my colleague Joe Tartakoff noted, there's good news for Microsoft, too: a record 15 percent want a Zune instead. On the other hand, 22 percent overall want to buy an iPhone so you can see where that's going.
Of course, Microsoft also appears to be focusing on a more distant horizon, looking at today's babies for the next generation of Zune owners.
Source
There was a lot of buzz about the projection that Apple may sell 10 million iPhones this year, based on an interesting crowdsourced data-collection effort (spreadsheet) run by MacObserver. The methodology is fascinating -- and historically vindicated -- although the accuracy of its conclusion is impossible to gauge until Apple trumpets the final sales tally in a press release.
But, lending it credence are factoids like NPD Group's report that 30 percent of iPhone 3G buyers bailed on existing phone contracts in order to get one of the new handsets.
In a related meme, the future of the iPhone was dragged into the spotlight by none other than Steve Wozniak, that glorious icon of Apple's antique past. In a widely cited interview with The Guardian, Woz predicted that the iPod is doomed.
Specifically, he said: "The iPod has sort of lived a long life at number one. Things like, that if you look back to transistor radios and Walkmans, they kind of die out after a while."
A shocking pronouncement on its face, yet a completely reasonable forecast if you think about it for a moment. How many "it" gadgets remain must-haves forever? None. Think about the Palm PDA or the pager. They seized the popular imagination, skyrocketed up the sales charts, became ubiquitous ... and slowly faded into irrelevance and/or obsolescence after most people had stopped paying attention and moved onto the next shiny new toy.
Of course, that could take quite a few years. Even then, if the demand for standalone iPods ebbs, it's likely that the iPod's functionality will survive embedded in the iPhone and its descendants. CNet's Matt Rosoff makes a similar argument in the provocatively titled iPod dying? It's already dead -- that future innovation at Apple will be built around "multifunction devices with interesting new interfaces (touch is just the beginning) that act more like tiny computers than single-purpose devices."
And even phone-free iPods are likely to be around for a while. According to Piper Jaffray's latest Teen Survey, 79 percent of teens planning to buy a new MP3 player in the next 12 months -- and only 34 percent of respondents did -- would pick an iPod. As my colleague Joe Tartakoff noted, there's good news for Microsoft, too: a record 15 percent want a Zune instead. On the other hand, 22 percent overall want to buy an iPhone so you can see where that's going.
Of course, Microsoft also appears to be focusing on a more distant horizon, looking at today's babies for the next generation of Zune owners.
Source
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